Nationwide annual house price growth slows to 0.5% in October, weakest since January 2024

UK annual house price growth slowed to 0.5% in October, the weakest rate since January 2024, with prices flat month on month after seasonal adjustment, Nationwide Building Society said in its latest house price index.

The October reading follows a halving of the lender's annual rate the month before. Nationwide's September release had reported growth falling to 0.8% from 1.6% in August, with prices down 0.2% on the month.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: "October saw a further slowing in UK annual house price growth to 0.5%, from 0.8% in September. That is the weakest growth since January 2024. Prices were flat month on month, after taking account of seasonal factors."

Gardner said the slowdown in activity and prices partly reflected an uncertain economic backdrop, with conflict in the Middle East pushing up energy prices and fanning inflation concerns. That, he said, had led to mounting financial market expectations of Bank Rate increases, keeping upward pressure on the market interest rates that underpin mortgage pricing.

The run of figures

Nationwide index	Annual change
January 2024	-0.2%
August 2026	1.6%
September 2026	0.8%
October 2026	0.5%

In January 2024, the month Gardner cites as the comparison point, Nationwide's index showed prices down 0.2% year on year, having been down 1.8% in December 2023.

Nationwide's index is built from its own lending for owner-occupier houses and is mix adjusted, tracking the value of a representative typical UK house over time. The society says its price data runs back to 1952, the longest unbroken run available.

The official measure tells a slightly different story. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said average UK prices rose 0.9% to £273,000 in the 12 months to August 2026, a provisional estimate, down from 1.2% in the 12 months to July. Nationwide's October release puts its not seasonally adjusted average at £273,566. The two figures cover different periods.

ONS figures put average prices at £294,000 in England (up 0.4%), £216,000 in Wales (up 3.1%) and £198,000 in Scotland (up 2.9%) over the same 12 months.

Regional picture

Nationwide's third-quarter data, published with the September index, showed Northern Ireland as the best performing region, with prices up 5.9% year on year. East Anglia was the weakest, down 0.7%. London was the only southern region to record an annual rise, at 0.4%.

By property type, terraced homes rose 1.8% over the year while flats were essentially unchanged, Nationwide said.

Surveyors and rates

Gardner said forward-looking indicators pointed to further softness in the near term, with surveyors reporting weak new buyer enquiries and consumer sentiment dipping noticeably in October.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS) September survey bears that out. Its new buyer enquiries net balance fell to -22% from -18% in August, the first weakening since March, although RICS said the reading remained well above the recent low of -41% six months earlier. The headline house price net balance fell to -32% from -28%, and three-month sales expectations slipped to -6% from -3%.

Tarrant Parsons, RICS Head of Market Research and Analysis, said: "A renewed rise in interest rate expectations has created a fresh headwind for the housing market".

Gardner said there were good reasons to believe the market would regain momentum once the energy shock fades, pointing to accelerating annual economic growth, employment and real incomes holding up, and household debt still close to 20-year lows relative to disposable income. He added that the affordability improvement of the past two years had been only partially unwound by higher market rates, because income growth had continued to outpace house price growth by a wide margin.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 at its meeting ending 16 September to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members voting for a 0.25 percentage point rise to 4%. The committee said UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August and was likely to rise further over coming quarters.